Monday, May 5, 2008

Why aren't you earning 50% returns.

This article was written by Joe Magyer and Tim Hanson for The Motley Fool (see here):

Look at the headline for this article. Is there any more preposterous question a client or boss could ask an investing professional?

Now switch. Is there a scarier question for an investing professional to hear from a client or boss?

You can imagine our surprise/heart-stopping fear when our boss, Fool co-founder Tom Gardner, put us in a room and asked, point-blank: "Why aren't you earning 50% annual returns?"

50 what?

To put 50% annual returns in perspective, understand that no money manager, anywhere, has ever achieved that degree of success for any meaningful period of time. Perhaps the closest were Jim Simons of Renaissance Technologies and Joel Greenblatt of Gotham Capital. Their funds reportedly have long-term 40% annual returns.

So where did Tom get his outlandish number? From none other than Warren Buffett. Of course, Buffett also said he had too much money to manage to prove it could be done.

How convenient.

Nuts to that, Tom

But after a few weeks that would have made Elisabeth Kubler-Ross proud, we finally answered the question. And although the answers may not help us earn 50% annual returns (still an outlandish number), they can help us all make more money in the stock market.

Ready to learn?

Lesson 1: Sell your index fund

There is no surer way to not beat the index than by investing in the index itself. Not exactly a revelation, right? Investing in index funds leads to nearly certain long-run underperformance, because of transaction costs and management fees.

Given that scenario, what would possess a returns-hungry investor to go that route? Owning an index fund makes sense in many cases, but if you're serious about market-beating returns, selling your index fund is Step 1.

Lesson 2: Follow Buffett's rules

He has two. Rule No. 1: Don't lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget Rule No. 1. We ribbed Buffett above, but we respect him a great deal, and we believe he's spot-on about losing money.

Losing principal soaks your long-run returns. Imagine you've lost 50% of your initial investment on your biggest holding. The next year, it bounces back with a 100% return. Guess what? You're still worse off than if you'd just left that money in a savings account.

Efficient-market believers argue that risk and reward go hand in hand. That's generally true. But there is one obvious alternative path.

Lesson 3: Look where no one else is looking

et us put this plainly: You can't achieve anything even remotely close to 50% annual long-term returns by investing in large-cap stocks. Period. Sure, you can best the market in the long run with that approach -- and doing so by just a couple of percentage points annually would be a notable triumph -- but you won't get to 50% annually.

If you want to work toward that mythical 50% mark, you'll need to consistently crush the market by finding the next home run stock and holding for five years or more. Your best chance is by going small.

Why's that? First, small caps, because of their size, have more upside potential than large caps do. Second, because Wall Street players are typically constrained to looking only at large- and mid-cap companies, you can take advantage of pricing inefficiencies.

With small caps, you can get greater rewards -- and you don't have to outwit a horde of Ivy League CFA-types to buy the best ideas.

Note: One reader actually sneered at my stock holdings and questioned why I do not hold a single "classy blue chip". This is the reason why.

Ready for 50%?

Let us be clear: You can do just fine financially by saving and investing regularly in an index fund. But if you want to shoot for 50% annual returns, the strategies above are three ready-made ways to get started.

Yes, there will be volatility. Yes, they may not get you all the way to 50%. But if you employ the strategy faithfully, you should be able to seriously accelerate your portfolio's growth.

9 comments:

serendib said...

Sell your index fund?? Didn't Buffett himself proclaim that the best option for individual investors is to hold index funds?
I think an index fund offers an excellent return for the risk, and should at least complement one's individual stock portfolio.

I do agree that exposure to small-caps is important, but as picking individual small-caps consistently over a long period is a tough game, a better option might be to buy an index fund/ETF that includes small-cap exposure (eg. Vanguard's VTI or VTSMX). Too bad Singapore has no such funds!

Cathy Liew said...

'You can do just fine financially by saving and investing regularly in an index fund. But if you want to shoot for 50% annual returns, the strategies above are three ready-made ways to get started.

Yes, there will be volatility. Yes, they may not get you all the way to 50%. But if you employ the strategy faithfully, you should be able to seriously accelerate your portfolio's growth.'

I tend to agree with you on the above statement.

Hau Keat said...

Hi Kleer,

Nice to stumble upon your blog. I am of the opinion too that investing in small/mid caps is the way to go, but 50% p.a. may be a little far-fetched for most people in the long haul.

With 50% p.a. returns compounded over 30 years, one can turn $10 into $2 million. While I think some super fund managers can do it, it really requires big and few purchases of grossly mis-priced securities. In an information-rich age, such crazy opportunities are fewer than in Ben Graham's days.

I think your portfolio is pretty cool, but probably not able to hit 50% p.a. return (personal opinion). What is your personal investment target?

For myself, I set an aim of at least 15% p.a. return, which means every $1 should double every 2 years. Hope it is achievable! That can turn a portfolio of $50,000 into $3 - 4 million in 30 years.

kleer said...

Hi Hua Keat,

My aim is to outperform the STI by at least 10% every year.

zoey said...

Hi Kleer,

I'm a budding investor, having just started working after graduating and I love your blog!!!

I'm curious how do you find the time to trade while doing a 9-5 job esp when that is the SGX trading time? I've tried to secretly monitor online during office hours but it is so difficult! I thought of getting my broker to execute trades for me but it is so expensive and I've little capital to begin with [not to mention the high inflation is eroding my money every day :( ]

Also, do you have any advice to share with budding traders/investor on how to kick start their porfolio (e.g. what kind of stocks are good to start with to get atleast a 10% return (I stated a high % because of high inflation), any impt books they sld read, any particular TA that is important to master etc?

Thanks for reading and hope you reply soon!

kleer said...

Hi Zoe,

Thanks for your kind words. I think the best thing you can do is to keep reading up on investing at this point - books, blogs, articles.

It took me a full year of reading and researching before I decided I knew enough to invest in stocks on my own.

As for finding the time, I always tell myself that if I want to be successful, then I will just have to be busy and learn how to mange my time well.

I'm sure people like Bill Gates or Warren Buffett are busier than me, but yet they have the same 24 hours a day.

San said...

Dear Kleer,

this is really a lovely thread (on your thinkings) for small-caps.

EG: i thought of ask'g u this on LB/ retail stock u picked earlier.

your sole definition on small-cap, does it include china picks? or e management has to be of local players?

rdgs.

kleer said...

I don't see why china plays should be excluded because they have tremendous potential.

Just look at Cosco. It started out as a 20ct small cap at look where it is now.

Of course not all china plays are equal, and all the hard work is in making the right pick

weee said...

cacola is a good small cap counter!!